Saturday, November 03, 2007

Fantasy '08

Political junkie that I am, I registered last month on the fantasy 2008 election "stock exchange" hosted by When you register, they give you 10,000 "RCP dollars", which you can use to buy securities for candidates winning or losing races, whose prices are determined entirely by what people are willing to pay for them. After over a month trading I am proud to announce that I am ranked #9, now with about $12,500.

I keep my trading based mostly on the Republican primary, since I just don't understand how most Democrats think, and I feel much more comfortable predicting the outcomes of races on the right. The races in which I have made the most money have been the Michigan Republican primary, and the prediction of who will be the Rep. nominee. I placed about $2200 on Romney being the winner in Mi., and that has earned me about $1700. I placed $5000 on Thompsen NOT being the nominee for the Republican party, and that has earned me about $1000. I put a little money on Romney being the Rep. nominee and that earned me $100 so far with minimal investment. I also put some money on the South Carolina primary, for Romney and against Thompsen, which has lost a little (since Thompsen is still polling higher than Romney there), but I believe that will change soon judging by some recent polling there.

I've put a little money on both McCain and Paul not winning the nomination, since at the time that I did that they were both relatively highly priced to win (in the upper single digits), but that has lost me a little money since they have gone up since then. I think I'll buy more of that since I think they can only go down- especially Paul.

I have not put any money on New Hampshire or Iowa since I think Romney will win those, but his stock costs too much to make it worth purchasing. I also have not put any money on Giuliani since his stock is also very high, and I don't think it will get any higher- yet I don't feel safe betting against him yet.

So barring personal opinion of what you want to happen, what do you think WILL happen in the primary?


Nick said...

In the Republican race, I think Romney will win Iowa, Nevada, Wyoming, and probably Michagan and New Hampshire too. I'm leaning towards him winning south carolina too. All of those early wins should have an effect on his standing in Florida where he is still lagging a little. Whether all those early wins will sway the polls in all the big states where he is significantly trailing Giuliani (or Thompsen, in the South) is just too hard to call. I'd like to say it will, just like it did for Kerry in 2004, who was also trailing badly in national polls until after he won Iowa, but his competitors just weren't very strong candidates. But as I have said jokingly before, I think this is a very strong republican field in terms of resumes and personalities and I don't know for sure if early wins will sway many peoples' opinions. So for the Republican nomination I put it at 60% Romney, 40% Giuliani.

On the Democratic side, I just don't know what to say. It mystifies me that so many people are for Clinton. I think it mostly has to do with a combination of Bush fatigue making people yearn for the happier days of Bill Clinton, and they transfer that on to Hillary (if Gore had have run, I think he would have been the main beneficiary of the Bush fatigue), combined with liberal guilt- any chance to elect someone who is not a white male just makes them pee their pants with glee (not that we shouldn't vote for a woman, but it should be based strictly on her qualifications, not her gender). I guess if I had to say something positive about her- she runs a tight ship. She has a great campaign organization, worlds better than Kerry's was. Very disciplined and energetic.
As for Obama, he's got great presence, a nice voice, and has the benefit of not having a last name of Clinton or Bush. He's new, and young, and he draws away a lot of the affirmative action voters from Clinton.
As for Edwards- I wont say much, except that hes a joke.
So my prediction for the dem. race is that the media, liking a good story, will start to turn on Clinton (a recent study by a Harvard group found she received the most positive coverage so far), and her numbers will drop somewhat before the primaries start. She will eek out a win in Iowa, with Obama a close second. He might have a surprise win in Nevada, and may just win south carolina, but Clinton will have enough wins going into February to sweep most of the states on Feb 5.